The Impasse with Iran
It is national policy that Iran not become a nuclear weapons state. We can debate whether that policy is good or bad, but it is, and has been, our policy across multiple administrations. A July 2016 report in the Council on Foreign Relations, early on after the signing of the JCPOA, stated, “So Iran isn’t only being more aggressive since the signing of the JCPOA--in Iraq and Syria, for example, or in cyber attacks on the United States--but is also cheating on the deal.” https://www.cfr.org/blog/iran-cheating-nuclear-deal
It has only been through force that Iran’s malign influence through its surrogates has been successfully curtailed. Although the current disruption of the Shia crescent caused by the fall of the Assad regime in Syria may be tenuous, coupled with intense actions in Yemen and, controversially, in Gaza, Iran’s ability to disrupt the peace in the region by pursuing its singular focus on the destruction of Israel has been significantly curtailed for the present. Their intent, however, has not changed. The American Enterprise Network puts it thus; “Senior Iranian military officials are developing concepts for destroying Israel without having to defeat the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).” https://www.aei.org/articles/how-iran-plans-to-destroy-israel/
According to some estimates, “Iran’s nuclear program has reached the point at which Iran might be able to enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons within about one week and enough for eight weapons in less than two weeks.” https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/articles-reports/irans-nuclear-timetable-weapon-potential Our Secretary of Defense recently stated that Iran is working towards building a nuclear weapons state. In a post on X, Senator Tom Cotton remarked, “Today @SecDef confirmed that Iran’s terrorist regime is actively working towards a nuclear weapon. For the sake of our national security, the security of our allies, and millions of civilians in the region this cannot be allowed to happen.”
Iran’s missile technology advancements provide a robust delivery capability. Nuclear weaponization might take, assuming not already begun, a risky assumption, another 6 months. https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/how-quickly-could-iran-make-nuclear-weapons-today/8
Given this scenario, and given the U.S. recent actions in preparing for kinetic action against Iran, it appears current talks have been unsuccessful. Scheduled talks in Oman look unlikely to occur given the current impasse. The U.S. is moving non essential personnel out of the region. The Vinson, the Truman and the Wasp are deployed to support operations. Diego Garcia has been prepared with long range air power. The CENTCOM commander has cancelled congressional testimony and has assured the president of robust plans to execute a military solution if called upon to do so.
The nation has resolved to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state. The president has repeatedly announced his resolve to prevent it. All indications are that diplomatic efforts have failed, although many might quibble as to why. Iran’s malign influence in the region has only been curtailed by military force. They have given no indication they seek a peaceful resolution. In fact, they appear to believe that their robust missile and drone development has given them a shield to reinforce their intransigence.
Given the current circumstances, Iran would be wise to capitulate diplomatically. Although not privy, my guess is that this administration has offered significant carrots to get them to do so. Their choice is stark. This administration, if it chooses to act with force, will not act by half measures. In fact, given the situation, it cannot. If military action is taken, the entire range of Iran’s military capabilities will be targeted, not just their nuclear sites. To use a pin prick would invite a massive retaliatory strike on our ally.
Although it should be discussed, and no doubt will be, the legality of such a massive act of war against Iran without congressional notification or approval is a subject for another discussion. The imminence of the threat has substantial evidence, the president’s constitutional authority to act against an imminent threat a long term precedent.
Let us all pray for a peaceful resolution to this impasse. Should that avenue be precluded, let us all pray for the safety of our nation, our strategic ally Israel, and their success.